Resumo em Inglês
Bernardo Lanza QueirozDoutor em Demografia pela University California at Berkeley, Professor do Departamento de Demografia da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais e Pesquisador do Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR/UFMG)Alisson F. BarbieriDoutor em City and Regional Planning pela University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Professor do Departamento de Demografia da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Pesquisador do Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) Ulisses E. ConfalonieriDoutor em Ciências (Parasitologia) pela Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro e Universidade da Califórnia, Berkeley, Professor da Fundação Oswaldo Cruz e da Universidade Federal FluminenseClimate Change , Population and Health Dynamics: Challenges for Planning and Public Policy in Brazil
The paper discusses the implications of climate change scenarios on the economic and demographic dynamics and health in Brazil with particular focus in the Northeast. It discusses how climate change may generate new conditions of vulnerability or aggravate situations due to the emergence of a new demographic and epidemiological profile, population redistribution and economic activities. Climatic, socioeconomic, demographic and health scenarios and their implications for long-term public policy demands are presented. From these scenarios, one Multidimensional Index General Vulnerability reflecting important causal links between health and socioeconomic, demographic and climatic factors is proposed. The article concludes with a discussion of the centrality of the construction of medium and long term capacity planning, and their full incorporation into public policies in its various spheres, as a strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
Resumo em Português - Texto
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